Come gli individui rispondono alle riforme pensionistiche. Un'analisi delle scelte e un'applicazione al caso Italiano

In response to pressure stemming from ageing populations and persisting low participation rates, Italy has reformed its pension system. The reforms comprise a list of different measures in order to recover sustainability in both the social security system and public finances. This paper estimates the effect of pension reforms on households' expectations of retirement decisions. Two parameters are essential to estimate pension reform outcomes: the ¿preferred¿ retirement age and the expected replacement ratio. This paper uses the database from The Survey of Household Income and Wealth, which is released by Bank of Italy every two years. By requiring individuals to decide whether to participate in pension funds and their expected pension to pre-retirement income, the survey provides the quasi-experimental framework to study the response to the pension reform. The empirical analysis shows that individuals who lack of financial literacy and without college degree have less incentive to respond to pension reform. Gender bias indeed exists: males have more incentive to participate longer than female in the labor market. But changes of females' incentive to postpone retirement are positive and significant large than males in a different-in-different approach comparing pre- and post-reform. The results show individuals with high educated, resident in the Northern part of Italy are more willing to retire later than others groups (relatively low educated and live in South Italy). The pre-retirement generation shows a higher expected retirement ages than middle-aged generations. Nevertheless, the junior cohorts do not have clear and definite goals about retirement and recent pension policy.