La transizione dal sistema pensionistico retributivo a quello contributivo, avviata con le riforme degli anni Novanta, ha posto notevoli sfide per i lavoratori "post-riforma". Tra queste, emergono la riduzione dei tassi di sostituzione del primo pilastro per le pensioni future, l’aumento dell'età pensionabile e degli anni contributivi necessari per l'accesso alla pensione, costringendo molti a ritirarsi dal lavoro a un’età avanzata, spesso con una ridotta qualità della vita. Di conseguenza, i lavoratori italiani – in particolare i laureati, che tendono a entrare nel mercato del lavoro più tardi – affrontano due esigenze contrastanti: massimizzare i benefici pensionistici, evitando al contempo il pensionamento a un'età molto avanzata. L’introduzione, nel 2019, del riscatto agevolato della laurea, insieme alle discussioni in corso sulla sua possibile gratuità, ha riacceso l'interesse per questa opzione. Tuttavia, sebbene la riforma abbia reso il riscatto più economico, l'importante impegno finanziario che comporta solleva una domanda cruciale: "Il riscatto degli anni universitari è vantaggioso per i laureati italiani?". Nonostante la crescente rilevanza del tema, la letteratura esistente rimane scarsa e non tecnica. Questa tesi mira a colmare tale lacuna, presentando un approccio innovativo per valutare se il riscatto della laurea offra benefici tangibili per i laureati. Nel trattare la questione, lo studio propone una risposta ponderata, riconoscendo la complessità del tema, e la varietà di scenari possibili, legati alle preferenze individuali. La ricerca include laureati triennali e magistrali di varie discipline, garantendo un campione rappresentativo dei percorsi professionali. I risultati iniziali rivelano che: (i) una pianificazione pensionistica accurata e il ricorso alla previdenza complementare sono fondamentali per migliorare gli esiti pensionistici; (ii) il riscatto della laurea, se associato al pensionamento anticipato, comporta tassi di sostituzione netti (NRR) futuri inferiori, rispetto alle sole pensioni pubbliche; e (iii) il riscatto della laurea, senza pensionamento anticipato, genera NRR più elevati rispetto al solo sistema pubblico. Questi risultati evidenziano l'importanza di integrare il riscatto della laurea in una strategia più ampia, per comprenderne il potenziale nel migliorare lo stile di vita dei pensionati. Per chi, invece, non intende anticipare la pensione, è essenziale valutare se altre strategie possano garantire risultati più favorevoli in termini di NRR. Abbiamo proposto e analizzato varie strategie di investimento pensionistico, tenendo conto di diverse capacità di risparmio. Abbiamo condotto simulazioni per determinare i parametri chiave per i lavoratori laureati e analisi di sensibilità per valutarne la robustezza, riscontrando che: (iv) le strategie che includono il riscatto della laurea e il pensionamento anticipato portano a NRR inferiori, ma offrono uno standard di vita migliore rispetto alle sole pensioni pubbliche; e (v) la decisione di riscattare la laurea non dovrebbe basarsi esclusivamente sul NRR, poiché essa offre anche il beneficio non quantificabile di un pensionamento anticipato, il cui valore dipende dalle preferenze personali. Sebbene la soggettiva di questa decisione impedisca una soluzione unica, e i modelli utilizzati in questo studio possano essere perfezionati, l'analisi offre spunti preziosi per i lavoratori, consulenti previdenziali ed istituzioni, rappresentando un contributo significativo per future ricerche. Le evidenze raccolte offrono comunque un valido supporto per aiutare i laureati ad individuare la strategia pensionistica più adatta alle loro esigenze e preferenze.
The transition from an earnings-related to a notional defined contribution pension system, initiated by reforms in the 1990s, has posed significant challenges for "post-reforms workers". Among these, the decline in future first-pillar replacement rates, coupled with the steady increase in both retirement age and contributory years required for eligibility, stands out, leading many workers to retire at a much more advanced age, often with a reduced quality of life. As a result, Italian workers — particularly graduate workers who typically enter the workforce later in life — face two conflicting needs: maximizing pension benefits while avoiding retirement at an excessively old age. The introduction of the subsidized university years redemption process in 2019, along with the ongoing discussions on making it free, have sparked renewed interest in this option. However, while the reform has made redemption cheaper, the significant financial commitment it entails raises the critical question: "Is redeeming university years advantageous for Italian graduates?". Despite the growing relevance of this topic, the existing literature remains scarce and largely non-technical. This thesis aims to address this gap by presenting a novel approach to evaluate whether redeeming university years provides tangible benefits for graduates. In tackling this question, the study offers a well-reasoned answer, acknowledging the inherent complexity of the task, as individual preferences lead to a variety of possible scenarios. The research includes both undergraduate and graduate workers from various disciplinary backgrounds, ensuring a representative sample of career paths. Our initial findings reveals that: (i) proper retirement planning and participation in complementary pension schemes are essential for improving retirement outcomes; (ii) redeeming university years, when coupled with early retirement, results in lower future Net Replacement Rates (NRR) compared to relying solely on public pensions; and (iii) redeeming university years without early retirement yields higher NRR than public pensions alone. These outcomes underscore the need to integrate university year redemption into a broader strategy to assess its potential to enhance retirees' lifestyles. Conversely, for those not aiming for early retirement, it is essential to consider whether alternative strategies could yield better NRR outcomes. We proposed and analyzed various retirement investment strategies, taking into account different savings capacities. We ran simulations to determine key metrics for graduate workers, conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate robustness, and found that: (iv) strategies involving university year redemption and early retirement result in lower NRRs, yet offer a better standard of living than public pensions alone; and (v) the decision to redeem university years should not rely solely on NRR, as it also offers the non-quantifiable benefit of earlier retirement, which depends on personal preferences. While the inherently subjective nature of this decision prevents a one-size-fits-all solution, and the models used in this study could benefit from further refinement, the analysis provides valuable insights for workers, financial advisors, and institutions, marking an important step for future research. Nonetheless, the evidence gathered offers a strategic tool to help graduates identify the retirement investment strategy best suited to their needs and preferences.
Graduates' Retirement Planning: A Comparative Analysis of University Years Redemption, Pension Funds, and Financial Market Investments
FORZAN, GIORGIA
2023/2024
Abstract
The transition from an earnings-related to a notional defined contribution pension system, initiated by reforms in the 1990s, has posed significant challenges for "post-reforms workers". Among these, the decline in future first-pillar replacement rates, coupled with the steady increase in both retirement age and contributory years required for eligibility, stands out, leading many workers to retire at a much more advanced age, often with a reduced quality of life. As a result, Italian workers — particularly graduate workers who typically enter the workforce later in life — face two conflicting needs: maximizing pension benefits while avoiding retirement at an excessively old age. The introduction of the subsidized university years redemption process in 2019, along with the ongoing discussions on making it free, have sparked renewed interest in this option. However, while the reform has made redemption cheaper, the significant financial commitment it entails raises the critical question: "Is redeeming university years advantageous for Italian graduates?". Despite the growing relevance of this topic, the existing literature remains scarce and largely non-technical. This thesis aims to address this gap by presenting a novel approach to evaluate whether redeeming university years provides tangible benefits for graduates. In tackling this question, the study offers a well-reasoned answer, acknowledging the inherent complexity of the task, as individual preferences lead to a variety of possible scenarios. The research includes both undergraduate and graduate workers from various disciplinary backgrounds, ensuring a representative sample of career paths. Our initial findings reveals that: (i) proper retirement planning and participation in complementary pension schemes are essential for improving retirement outcomes; (ii) redeeming university years, when coupled with early retirement, results in lower future Net Replacement Rates (NRR) compared to relying solely on public pensions; and (iii) redeeming university years without early retirement yields higher NRR than public pensions alone. These outcomes underscore the need to integrate university year redemption into a broader strategy to assess its potential to enhance retirees' lifestyles. Conversely, for those not aiming for early retirement, it is essential to consider whether alternative strategies could yield better NRR outcomes. We proposed and analyzed various retirement investment strategies, taking into account different savings capacities. We ran simulations to determine key metrics for graduate workers, conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate robustness, and found that: (iv) strategies involving university year redemption and early retirement result in lower NRRs, yet offer a better standard of living than public pensions alone; and (v) the decision to redeem university years should not rely solely on NRR, as it also offers the non-quantifiable benefit of earlier retirement, which depends on personal preferences. While the inherently subjective nature of this decision prevents a one-size-fits-all solution, and the models used in this study could benefit from further refinement, the analysis provides valuable insights for workers, financial advisors, and institutions, marking an important step for future research. Nonetheless, the evidence gathered offers a strategic tool to help graduates identify the retirement investment strategy best suited to their needs and preferences.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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Tesi_Magistrale_Giorgia_Forzan.pdf
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Descrizione: Tesi di Laurea Magistrale - Quantitative Finance and Insurance.
Key words: Riscatto della Laurea, Tassi di Sostituzione Lordi e Netti, Pianificazione Pensionistica Laureati, Previdenza Complementare, Mercati Finanziari, Sistema Pensionistico Italiano.
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10.79 MB
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10.79 MB | Adobe PDF |
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14240/8948