Come potrebbe cambiare l'industria fotolvoltaica tedesca se le politiche publicche traslassero da basate su incentivi di prezzo a basate su incentivi di quantità

As the result of the raising climate change`s concerns on the international arena, conventional electricity generation from fossil fuels had to be exposed to its depletion. Fortunately, at the same time that our generation had threats of climate change, we had opportunities of having new technologies for energy saving and new ways of electricity production from renewable sources. Since private benefits of such ¿green¿ technologies in the context of a free market are lower than their social benefits, government intervention is indispensable. To solve market failure, a range of public policies for accelerating the diffusion of renewable energy technologies has been adopted by many economies worldwide. The main question arising as to which support mechanisms can stimulate more effective diffusion of ¿green¿ technologies. While a majority of studies has investigated a policymaker perspective in respect to the design of different support mechanisms, little has been studied on the policy results. Moreover, the literature on energy policy neglects the very fact that policies have a complex dynamic nature, causing impacts on the diffusion of the renewable technology and on diverse agents of the energy market. To fill these gaps, we conduct an investor-oriented study of changing public policy by means of scenario analysis. Empirically, we examine a case of German PV industry ¿ the most successful example of public intervention on renewable electricity market to that day. As a prerequisite for the case study, we conduct an analysis of rationales and risks for investors on current energy market as well as cost-benefit analysis of selected public policies for RES-E promotion. In our analysis we rely heavily on Public Policy theoretical framework, Transaction Costs Economics, Economics of Innovation and Evolutionary Economics. The results of this thesis expand theoretical understanding of investment decisions on the electricity market and suggest that different regulatory contracts have diverse advantages and drawbacks. We reveal investor-behavior profiles under policies that fix Price and Quantity. Finally, the study suggests that policy change from Price mechanisms to Quantity mechanisms in Germany is induced by the coevolving interaction between dynamic socio-technical systems. We draw the effects caused by the policy change on business/investment strategies and technological diffusion in accordance with 3 possible scenarios, providing policy suggestions for the evolution to take desirable PV developmental path up to 2030.