Meccanismi di prezzo del GNL e del gas naturale nell'Unione Europea: un'analisi dei driver e dei trend

On March 8th 2022, the Commission released the REPower EU action plan by which it takes a clear position to make the EU independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030, diversifying energy supplies, saving energy and accelerating the transition to clean energy sources (European Commission 2022). For the diversification of supplies, liquefied natural gas (LNG) represents the closest substitute to pipeline natural gas that may guarantee energy security in the short run. Given the recent interest in LNG, this thesis analyzes the relation of this fuel with natural gas, the long established dominant source of energy for households, energy intensive industries and electricity generation in critical times for the EU. In Chapter 1, the literature review of LNG reveals its role as a global fuel that is responsive to global supply and demand forces. Scholars investigated its price determinants (Panagiotidis and Rutledge 2007), (Dahl 2016), (Agerton 2017), (Loureiro 2022), illustrating a moderate to strong link between the price of LNG, natural gas and brent according to the degree of natural gas market liberalization in the region, the form of contracting and the relative competitiveness of other fuels. Following the identification of the relevant variables that may influence the LNG price globally, Chapter 2 provids a description and preliminary analysis of these, highlighting the strong correlation among the regional prices for each fuel and commenting on the high volatility that all of the series present since the end of 2020. Chapters 3 and 4 formally assess the relation between the price of LNG, natural gas, brent and the demand in Europe for the period 2012-2020 and 2021-2022 through the linear regression model and the ARDL one. Although the value of the estimated coefficients differ across methods, the general interpretation of the results illustrate the same change in market dynamics: in the years 2012-2020, the response of the prices for LNG and natural gas is similar, but, in the aftermath of 2020, this started to gradually change. Since 2021, the LNG price in Europe started to respond differently to the investigated variables, suggesting a potential gradual change in the price determination dynamics from regional to global ones. Taking this into account, the final chapter provides an evaluation of the future market outlook of the natural gas industry in Europe, assessing the major global market risks and the recent policies on natural gas market passed in Europe. The heterogeneity of the results of the scenario analysis reflects the complexity of the current market environment, where it is incredibly difficult to provide an accurate reliable forecast of the future trend of the prices of natural gas and LNG in Europe. In a context of high uncertainty, the Market Correction Mechanism offers a safety ceiling such that the price of natural gas will follow the LNG one. However, the reaction of market actors to such mechanism is still unknown: only time and careful market monitoring will reveal the relevance and the cost of the natural gas in Europe.