Indici di recessione probabilistici – Euro Area e Regno Unito

This thesis derives from my internship experience carried out at Fondaco S.G.R. The project falls within a broader basin of creation of early warning indicators through the use of artificial intelligence. The objective of the work in question is the creation of a monthly economic-financial recession index for the Euro Area and for the United Kingdom, which will integrate what Fondaco S.G.R. has done for the USA. It will present itself as a probability of recession. During the first phase of the work, it was necessary to select the data to be used as input to the model, investigating and selecting the most explanatory variables through feature selection techniques, then building an optimized model and finally validating it, all in the Python environment.