Il Next Generation EU: Il caso italiano

The economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic represents one of the greatest challenges of recent decades. The solutions adopted by governments to mitigate the economic and social effects have been manifold and unprecedented. Within the European Union, a substantial aid package financed by the EU's funds was approved: the Next Generation EU (NGEU) recovery package. This thesis is structured around a case study of the European Recovery Plan to counter the crisis triggered by COVID-19. The subject under examination in my research is the Italian Plan, as Italy has the largest share of found, and, therefore, the success or failure of the initiative will see this country as a key player. In particular, the aim of my research has been to understand what role this package can have on the growth of Italy, a country in economic stagnation. To answer my research question, I have explored the economic consequences of the crisis and examined the particulars of the Next Generation EU package and the Italian Recovery Plan. On top of that, I have drawn my conclusions related to the impact that European funds will have on the Italian economy through the implementation of the PNRR. I have worked on data from simulations of two main macroeconomic models using the QUEST model and the MACGEM-IT model. These two models were used to assess the impact of investments and reforms within the PNRR. The PNRR represents the first major step towards a potential return to growth in Italy, but it is only a first step. How Italy will use this opportunity, and whether it will continue to follow a virtuous path, will be determinant for the improvement not only of its economy but also of the broader European fiscal outlook, such as common debt and budget increase.