La scelta del mutuo sulla casa in Italia: un'analisi empirica tra le famiglie e l'indagine di genere

During 2006-2009, the Italian credit market faced a slowing down in demand of mortgages and in 2008 the financial crisis stopped a long expansive phase of mortgages for the house purchase. The impact of housing in the Italian economy is huge, reflecting the widespread homeownership wish. In this research dissertation, I have examined the results of the SHIW conducted by the Bank of Italy in 2012, 2010 and 2008 waves. I have analyzed also sections dealing with individual and households' socio-demographic and economic features. The aim of the thesis was studying the mortgage choice also in FRMs and ARMs with a gender dimension. Hence, in order to run the investigation I set as outcome variable firstly, the dummy variable mortgage, secondly the yearly installment amount paid and then, the fixed rate mortgage. In the first chapter there is an overview of features, recent legislative reforms and mortgage risk profile (FRMs and ARMs); in the second, household finance and the role played by borrowing constraints, inflation rate, financial literacy and credit market; in the third, Italian real estate sector evidences focusing on benchmark rates, spread, mortgage demand and supply and Euro-zone comparison; in the fourth, data description and analysis (mortgage transition); in the fifth, empirical results (Probit and Tobit estimations). To sum up, it has emerged that about 11.2%-10.9% of households in 2012-2008 hold mortgages. I found that new holders correspond to 2.8% of panel holders. Panel FRM and ARM holders cover 56% and 44% of the sample. About holders' age, the pyramid has been shifted to the right: in 2008 about 34.9% among heads of household were in 35-44 class whereas in 2012 about 36% in 45-54 class. About income, the women behavior is ambiguous, especially in case of high incomes (both single women and females with spouse): the richer are, the less likely hold house mortgages. It emerged that graduated heads of household are 48% more likely to be holders. Living in the Northern and Central Italy had a positive impact (77.8% and 82.8%), whilst individuals living in the North were about 32.6% less likely to demand for FRMs. Living in a large city had a positive impact on the FRM demand (23.6%), due to the income-effect resulting from the house prices' upturn. Furthermore, employment status and job contract turn out to be good predictors; being office workers or manager with a permanent contract had a positive impact on FRMs; being blue-collar workers or office workers or manager or self employed increased the yearly installment and holding a permanent contract grew probabilities by 73%. Also risk aversion and financial literacy were good mortgage demand predictors. In conclusion, estimation outcomes over the FRM ratio indicates that heads of household are 59.6% more likely to switch to ARMs; so only in case in which they consider the benchmark rate conditioned to the offered fixed rate, the probability demand in FRMs decreases.