Consolidamento bancario: Analisi dell'acquisizione di Antonvebeta da parte di Monte dei Paschi di Siena e di UBI Banca da parte di Intesa Sanpaolo

The thesis investigates the banking consolidation phenomena, meaning the process through which a bank acquires a smaller banks or through which two equal-size banks merge to generate a bigger bank that may benefit from increasing ROE and higher efficiency. This phenomenon is strongly welcomed by banks’ CEOs and regulators as it seems to be the remedy for low banks’ profitability due to low or sometimes negative interest rates, anyway a M&A transaction in not necessarily always profitable. The work will first explain the main drivers of the banking consolidation process and then it will analyse two case studies, the acquisition of Banca Antonveneta by Monte dei Paschi di Siena that happened in 2008 and the acquisition of UBI Banca by Intesa Sanpaolo that happened in 2020. The first transaction will serve as negative example of banking consolidation as it was the beginning of Monte dei Paschi di Siena financial problems and the thesis will go through the financial statements analysis of the two banks and explain the reasons why the transaction has been a failure. The second transaction, instead, will serve as virtuous example of how a banking M&A transaction may generate value, specifically the thesis will present both Intesa Sanpaolo and UBI Banca financial situations and will show the results of the transaction in terms of share price increase and performances and efficiency ratios. The same chapter will also highlight potential challenges for the above mentioned transaction that should be taken into account in the following years, specifically the rising inflation may trigger movements in interest rates that could potentially affect a bank’s performances and therefore the future outcome of the transaction.