Analisi Econometrica dell'Impatto dell'Indebitamento Pubblico sulla Crescita Economica. Evidenze Empiriche da Italia, Giappone e Turchia. ​

The last economic crisis due to the Covid-19 pandemic has left the global economy with severe damage. Thus, it has resulted in a rise in public debts in order to overcome debt vulnerabilities. The main purpose of this thesis is to empirically analyze the impact of debt on economic growth for the cases of Italy, Japan, and Turkey. The study investigates the effect of public debt on the economic growths of three countries namely, Italy, Japan, Turkey using annual time series data from 1970-2020. In collecting, evaluating, and interpreting secondary data relating to the study objective, the quantitative and ex-post facto research design was adopted. I surveyed the literature about the relationship between the variables. The literature is not entirely conclusive regarding the relationship, although broadly it is accepted that there is an inverse relationship between them. The variables used were integrated of order I (1) for the first model. As for the second model, the variables are integrated of different order. The Johansen cointegration and ARDL bounds test were used for the estimation respectively. The Vector Error Correction Model for Italy and Japan was applied to access the short and long-term nexus between economic growth and public debt indicators. Whereas the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was employed to analyze the relationship between the external debt and economic growth in Turkey. The empirical results indicate that the government debt had a noteworthy negative impact in the long-term while I couldn’t find any statistically significant relationship in the short run in Italy and Japan. As for the findings in Turkey, we can conclude that the foreign debt impacts the Turkish economy negatively in both the short and long-time-interval.