La Diga della Discordia: Analisi dell'Impatto della Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam sul Sudan

The thesis aims to assess and provide evidence of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam's impact on Sudan. The paper is divided into three sections: the first one is a brief introduction to concepts of water diplomacy like hydrohegemony, riparian state or transboundary aquifer by analysing the leading theories on the topic such as the Harmon doctrine, the role of historic rights and the principle of equitable and reasonable utilisation. Then, we will apply these concepts to the Nile Basin to see how Egypt’s hegemony over the river has been challenged, how the Nile Basin Initiative was established and how it (does not) works. The second part focuses on Sudan. Here we will analyse the relationship between the country and the Nile in terms of agriculture, energy, and state/elite building. As far as agriculture is concerned, we will see why and how the government has failed to turn Sudan into the “Breadbasket of the world” and today cannot adequately feed its own population, despite the high agricultural potential and the investments from international organisations and Gulf states. Secondly, the Nile is used to generate electricity, as shown by the many dams built both on the Blue and the White Nile. In order to do so, examples like the Gezira scheme, the shift towards export-oriented crops, or the establishment of neoliberal policies will be provided, and we will also evaluate how these decisions impacted the local population and the environment. Moreover, the role of dams has constantly increased since the independence of South Sudan, which deprived Sudan of oilfields and forced the government to find other ways to produce energy. This explains the construction and the heightening of giant dams like Merowe, Rosieres and Sennar, which were meant to symbolise a developed and modern Sudan. On the other hand, such mega-projects are not as efficient as claimed, and their construction caused the displacement of local communities (generally Nubians). Lastly, the Nile is an important political tool to shape society, create and preserve loyal elites and pursue a specific type of state-building. The river and its waters grow crops that supply foreign markets with almost no economic return for farmers, while tycoons and state companies become more affluent and prosperous. Similarly, the pharaonic dam project aims at forcing Nubians and other minorities to be relocated or move to Khartoum to be eventually assimilated according to a precise idea of Arab national identity. The last chapter will focus on the GERD issue in order to analyse whether the dam will negatively or positively affect Sudan by altering the flow of the Blue Nile. First, we will briefly look at the history of this new conflict that quickly became a matter of existence for the biggest countries in the Nile Basin. The position of Sudan will be investigated at an institutional and local level, with the government keeping an ambiguous position on the matter and the population being more favourable towards the dam. Finally, we will assess the impact of the GERD on Sudan from a potential decrease in water inflow due to the filling of the reservoir to the actual advantages of accessing more and cheaper electricity from Ethiopia and better control of floods which have become more and more destructive in the past years.