Dividend policy nel settore petrolifero. Un'analisi empirica.

Focusing our attention on Oil & Gas companies, we can surprisingly see how stable dividends are at the core of an industry, which is highly cyclical, due to macroeconomic and political factors, difficult to forecast precisely a priori. Stable dividends and cyclical sectors may appear to be at odds to each other, particularly when we look at Oil & Gas companies and we observe the historical evolution of Oil price since 1946. However, Oil & Gas industry, compared to the others, appears to have the highest registered dividend yield for listed and traded stocks across the globe: this is an important reason that pushed investors to this industry so far and it is one important consideration for the following pages to bear in mind not only as a matter of fact, but as a true pillar. Nonetheless, companies such as Exxon Mobil were rated AAA until few months ago, but keeping on paying dividends with a similar volatility may appear as a challenge that this sector is going to face very soon. When it comes to identify large players in the sector, having a look at the big picture may give a small introduction to what the truthful portrait is. Shell is integrating BG, a GBP 36 billion-operation, has been followed by divestments in a wide range of areas, meanwhile BP is still facing consequences of ¿worst environmental disaster¿ of 2010, ENI (with a reference shareholder, the Italian government) is boosting Egyptian activities, Conoco has refocused on exploration by sacrificing its refining-distribution activities. This evolution, which may be considered positively or negatively at a glance, has surely an impact on their dividend policies as well as on matching investors' expectations. Strategically, the consolidation within the sector and the expansion, horizontal and vertical or geographical, does not imply profitability and Oil & Gas companies have a common characteristic that is likely to come up very soon at investors' eyes: they no longer generate sufficient free cash flows to cover the payment of their dividends, without selling off assets and increasing their debt. Total since 2009, ENI since 2009, BP since 2009 (excluding 2014), Shell since 2009 and Exxon Mobil since 2014 are experiencing a similar situation. Given current level of interest rates, many companies, such as ExxonMobil, have preferred to increase their dividend policy or just to maintain the previous level, paying consequences such as a deterioration of their credit rating. The only player that came up with an ¿elegant¿ solution has been Total, whose management gave the option to receive dividends in cash or in Total shares. As soon as there is liquidity within a market and for a given stock, a monetization of the capital is still possible selling shares on the market and is surely preferred by Total, even this does not mean that such a policy is sustainable in the long- term. The purpose of this analysis is the assessment of the sector, considering fundamentals from the biggest listed Oil & Gas players, assessing if academic theories may explain the latest trends and if this is justified from a financial theoretical point of view. As last point, digging into dividend policies will allow us to assess the appetite for Oil & Gas stocks through market assessment and interview to a seasoned expert, if shareholders or potential ones will be the ones so far or if modifications are expected or currently part of the system, aiming at providing a truthful portrait.