Come essere un cartello senza provarci realmente OPEC tra geopolitica e teoria dei giochi

Great changes slip in through a back door; silently and unnoticed, oil did the same. The first chapter provides a historical background, from the first well drilled to the late 1960s, allowing the reader to get a good grasp of how everything began. Indeed, if it was not for the stubbornness, recklessness and ruthlessness of many people the world would not likely have experienced the oil market, as it is known today. In the second chapter, the oil market structure is discussed, with major attention on prices and their formation. The oil pricing system has not always been the same, it has changed over the course of the years, resulting in the current market-related oil pricing regime. An in-depth analysis has been carried out to comprehend the importance of Brent-WTI spread ¿ computed as the difference between the two main benchmarks ¿ paying heed to what happened after 2010, when an unusual distortion of the spread occurred. The oil market has two souls: economics and geopolitics. The third chapter aims at showing how important geopolitical events are in shaping the oil market. Firstly, the birth of OPEC is recalled and secondly, resorting to software QGIS, geospatial data have been visualised and analysed, producing thematic maps. The last section focuses on game theory. Many academics tried to understand ¿ through different methods ¿ whether or not OPEC is an efficient cartel. This is a hard question to answer, since mathematics cannot fully encompass the various factors influencing OPEC's conduct. A simple two-stage game has been implemented, so as to understand the strategies the two players would select to maximise their payoff. OPEC has shown the world oil market its resilience and it is still standing, but it is not calling the shots anymore.