Il Metodo del Controllo Sintetico e l'Euro: uno Studio Empirico

In this thesis I describe from a theoretical point of view the synthetic control method with a particular focus on the comparison between the traditional parametric approach, applied for the first time by Alberto Abadie and Javier Gardeazabal (2003), and the non-parametric approach, recently designed by Giovanni Cerulli (2020). Furthermore, after illustrating the main application fields of the synthetic control method, I make a literature review of research papers that applied this econometric technique to assess the impact of the Euro launch on the economies of the countries which adopted the single currency. Finally, I implement the parametric version to develop my own empirical answer to this research question, and I use 2002 as break year for the idiosyncratic event in order to take into account the consequences of the cash changeover. The results, in line with previous studies implementing the same methodology, show that the introduction of the Euro had a negative effect on most of its early adopters.