Modelli di simulazioni numeriche per la propagazione dell'influenza stagionale in Italia

In this work we undertook the initial step in the development of a statistically valid system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza in Italy. Even though influenza is known since ancient times, it continues to be a serious illness even now. Influenza is an infectious disease caused by viruses. From a public health point of view, influenza (or flu) epidemics spread rapidly and are very difficult to control because of the biological characteristics of the influenza viruses and their patterns of transmission among the population. The rapidity with which viruses can spread on a large scale highlights the need for timely and effective surveillance systems capable to detect emerging viruses with pandemic potential, as well as the need for standard platforms for data sharing and dissemination. Despite these modern means of surveillance, our ability to predict the timing, duration and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. In this work we want to present a method for real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza in Italy. To this aim, we combined three different tools: data from the web platform for influenza surveillance in Italy, called Influweb, the epidemic and mobility model GLEaM and the national surveillance system data Influnet. With this method we have reached a predictive power that allows us to provide very early in the flu season an estimate of the future seasonal influenza trend.