Cambiamento climatico e rischio incendi: strumenti e politiche di prevenzione per la Contea dello Jämtland.

Several studies show that wildfires are affected by climate change since many factors contributing to their ignition are sensitive to global warming. If on the one hand many countries that experienced significant wildfires in their past drafted policies to handle this issue, on the other there are countries that are not used to manage an increased occurrence of this kind of natural hazard. This is the case of Sweden, which have a general lack of experience in preventing and tackling an increased amount of large wildfires in its forests. The taiga is the dominating landscape and an essential environmental and economic element for all Scandinavian countries. It could be harshly affected by wildfires, with a very important loss of environmental heritage. The increasing risk caused by wildfires can represent a serious challenge to be tackled to avoid many negative consequences. Thanks to the Erasmus+ Trainsheep Program I had the opportunity to spend 3 months in Östersund, the administrative centre of Jämtland County. I have been able to confront myself with many experts from the County Administration Board of Jämtland who have certainly contributed to the realization of this work. This work focuses on the Swedish County of Jämtland as case-study. This region has recently experienced an outbreak of wildfires during Summer 2018 and under the last years has faced an increased risk due to change in temperature, precipitation patterns and other meteorological conditions during the snow-free season. The fires that occurred in 2018 did not affect major urban centres or infrastructures. Nevertheless, approximately 50% of Jämtland is covered by the taiga and infrastructures such as the overhead power lines, which are of fundamental importance in the County since a considerable amount of energy is produced in this part of Sweden, are regardless surrounded by woods. This could lead to an additional problem since wildfires could damage the power grid. Hence, the aim of the thesis is to map with the aid of a geographic information system (GIS) risk areas for wildfires in whole Jämtland County, trying to understand which portions of the territory are more exposed to the outbreak of wildfires taking into account the specific elements that contribute to the ignition. In addition, a policy will be drafted to stem this issue. This work is one of the first attempts to create both a wildfire risk map and a series of measures aimed at increasing mitigation about this hazard in Sweden. In addition, it is also an attempt to handle the interplay between fires and prevention strategies which are not easy to explain.