L'evoluzione del tasso di interesse naturale, il ruolo della demografia e le conseguenze sulla politica monetaria

The evolution of the natural interest rate is going to be among the greatest economic challenges of the 21st century. According to some estimates, this key economic variable has declined by around 400bps over the last three decades, passing from almost 5pc in the 1980s to the current estimated rate of less than 1pc. This phenomenon of global relevance in recent years has captured the interest of many economists, leading to the creation of a flourishing body of literature. The aim of this thesis is to tackle the pattern of the natural rate and discuss what might explain it. In particular, we analyse the role played by the evolution in the age structure of the population in this process and how this role may change in future decades. Moreover, we investigate how these long-term trends might influence monetary policy and discuss some possible rethinking in inflation targeting.