Belarus and the Ryanair Flight FR4978: an International Law Analysis

This thesis is a case-study on the facts taking place on 23 May 2021 over Belarus skies, when the Ryanair flight FR4978 was intercepted and diverted to Minsk by Belarusian authorities under a fabricated bomb threat. The operation was aimed at seizing Roman Protasevich, a journalist and political opponent of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. Once landed in Minsk, the dissident and his girlfriend Sofia Sapega were forced out of the aircraft and arrested. A year later, Sapega was sentenced to six years in prison for inciting social hatred. The whereabouts and conditions of Protasevich are unknown. This thesis aims at proving that these facts constitute internationally wrongful acts against the framework of the Convention on International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention) and of the Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Civil Aviation (Montreal Convention). Furthermore, it envisages a development of this case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) by delineating international law-grounded arguments against Belarus. The first chapter delineates the facts of the case according to the Report on the matter by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and it analyzes the event’s aftermath. It delves deeper into the crackdown on human rights carried out by Lukashenko and into the life of Protasevich. The second chapter presents an overview of the terminology applicable to this case (i.e.: hijacking, piracy and interception) and it differentiates among these strikingly similar definitions. It identifies the most appropriate label for the incident at stake, namely interception of civil aircraft, which paves the way for a case against Belarus on these grounds. The third and fourth chapters are devoted to analyzing Belarus’ actions against the backdrop of international civil aviation law. The two instruments applicable to the circumstances are the aforementioned Chicago Convention and Montreal Convention: the thesis analyzes which provisions are at stake, and envisages possible arguments both on the side of the Applicant and of the Defendant before an international Court. Historical background of the Conventions is provided, together with an overall assessment of their relative dispute settlement mechanisms. These chapters not only analyze the events thoroughly in light of Belarus’ obligations, but also pinpoint what strategies might be employed in order to hold Belarus accountable for its actions. The fifth chapter concerns questions of invocation of responsibility. Its purpose is twofold: on the one hand, it identifies the international avenues for redress available to States which may qualify as Applicants. On the other hand, it pinpoints the countries which may indeed initiate a case against Belarus. In conclusion, the scope of this thesis builds on two layers: firstly, it identifies Belarus’ breaches of international aviation law. Secondly, it places these violations in the current geopolitical context: one where States are hesitant to point a finger against Russia’s allies and where justice depends on the governments’ willingness to foster human rights. As international law and politics relentlessly intertwine, many wrongful acts are likely to be lost: this thesis argues that accountability of States is instead an essential mechanism for preventing autocrats from cracking down on democracy.