L'interdipendenza economica dell'Unione Europea e della Russia: Uno studio sugli effetti delle sanzioni

On 24th of February 2022 the European continent was yet again plunged into conflict by the unjustified invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. Although European and NATO forces didn’t join the fight on the ground European and NATO militaries helped Ukraine by providing weapons, ammunition, training and critical satellite information of Russian advancement inside of Ukraine. At the same time governments from across the world with at the forefront the United States, European Union and the United Kingdom were devising a set of economic and financial sanctions in order to deter further Russian aggression. This thesis will analyze those sanctions using an European lens. The following pages will give an overview of how the two economies, that of the European Union and that of Russia, are interconnected, how were they faring at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, what did the sanctions consist of, how the two economies were doing after the sanctions have been in place for nearly a year and finally an overview of the effect of said sanction on the Russian economy in the short, medium and long term. In order to achieve this goal this thesis takes into account previous studies, released official documents, academic research and press releases from all around the world and tries to elaborate them into a concise and accurate narrative. Some of the key findings of this thesis are that in the short term (from the beginning of the war until early 2022) the Russian Federation thanks in part to favorable energy market movements that increased its current account surplus by nearly 200 billion dollars and in part to an astute monetary policy implemented by its central bank managed to salvage its economy and financial sector from the disastrous effects that the sanctions could have had. In the medium to long-term however the sanctions are expected to put significant pressure on the Russian energy and industrial sectors and on the overall economy.